The CRFB outlined a concrete reform package in 2019 that the organization projected would grow the economy’s size by between 3.5% and 13% by 2050 and add roughly 0.25 percentage points to the annual growth rate. Average per-person income would increase by approximately $8,000 in 2050, while projected debt levels would fall by about 20% of GDP.
The plan combines several measures: raising Social Security’s retirement ages while protecting vulnerable workers who claim benefits at 62, automatically enrolling workers in supplemental retirement accounts, and counting all years of work toward benefit calculations. The mix is designed to shore up the program’s finances without concentrating the adjustment burden on lower-income retirees who depend most heavily on the program.
The most immediate deadline on the legislative calendar is the projected Q4 2032 depletion of the OASI trust fund — but Fichtner warns bond markets could begin repricing risk as early as 12 months before that date if Congress has not moved. The open question is whether lawmakers will act before markets force their hand: any reform that relies on large-scale borrowing rather than structural adjustments to benefits or revenues would, according to both the Mercatus Center and the CRFB, accelerate rather than defuse the fiscal pressure. The combined trust fund option, which would extend the runway to Q3 2034, remains available but has not yet been enacted.
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