Social Security’s main trust fund is on track to run out of money in the fourth quarter of 2032 — and if Congress fails to act before then, the fallout could extend well beyond retirement checks. New research published June 26 by George Mason University’s Mercatus Center warns that delayed reform could destabilize Treasury markets, drive up borrowing costs across the economy, and set off a fiscal crisis that would hit consumers long before any benefit cuts take effect.
En bref
- —OASI trust fund projected depleted in Q4 2032
- —Only 78% of benefits payable at depletion without reform
- —Mortgage rates could spike to nearly 9% under worst-case scenario
Trust fund depleted by 2032: only 78% of benefits payable without action
The Social Security trustees’ annual report projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund — the main vehicle for retirement and survivor benefits — will be exhausted in the fourth quarter of 2032, three months earlier than the previous year’s estimate. Once depleted, the program would only be able to pay 78% of scheduled benefits from ongoing payroll tax revenue alone.
