Social Security may pay only 78% of benefits by 2032 — senators want a vote

A 90-year-old program under financial strain

Social Security has operated as a pay-as-you-go system since 1935, relying on payroll taxes from current workers to fund benefits for retirees, survivors and disabled Americans. Trust funds supplement those taxes when revenues fall short. As the ratio of workers to beneficiaries has declined over decades, those trust funds have come under increasing pressure — a structural challenge that Congress has largely deferred since the last major reform in 1983.

Durbin and Cassidy: two departing senators racing the clock

Two of the bill’s most prominent backers are working against their own political timelines. Sen. Dick Durbin, the Democratic Whip from Illinois, is retiring at the end of his current term. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-Louisiana, failed to win his recent primary reelection bid. Both men have made Social Security reform a priority in their remaining months in office.

Two senators walking in Capitol corridor, bipartisan Social Security reform effort — Illustration © Toptenplay

«I want to get it done before we leave, so there is impetus to get it done,» Cassidy told CNBC.com in June. He has put forward what he calls a «big idea» fix: creating a separate investment fund for Social Security, modeled after changes made to the federal Railroad Retirement system under President George W. Bush.

Durbin has framed the issue in terms of intergenerational obligation. «Social Security is the bedrock promise of a secure retirement, earned after a lifetime of hard work,» he said in a statement. «But the longer Congress waits, the more difficult it will be to address the program’s financial shortfall.» In a joint statement released on June 10 following the trustees report, Cassidy, Durbin, Kaine and Tillis called on their colleagues to «join us in doing what we were elected to do — legislate on hard issues and protect this lifeline program for our kids and grandkids."

Competing fixes: investment funds, higher taxes, and a payroll cap debate

The PROMISE Act deliberately avoids picking a winner among the various reform proposals currently circulating in Congress. The bill’s sponsors acknowledge that the path to 60 Senate votes requires accommodating a wide range of approaches — and the policy menu is genuinely broad.

Bipartisan lawmakers discussing Social Security payroll tax reform proposals — Illustration © Toptenplay

Cassidy’s investment fund model is one option. Others include raising the full retirement age, which would reduce the program’s long-term obligations, or increasing payroll taxes on high earners. Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, and Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, recently co-authored an op-ed advocating for the removal of the payroll tax cap, currently set at $184,500 — meaning wages above that threshold are not subject to Social Security taxes.

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