AI could lift bank returns to 14%—but half of projects fail

JPMorgan leads the patent race; ING bets on AI mortgage applications

The competitive landscape is already tilting. Seven of the top 10 names in Evident’s latest AI Banking Index are headquartered in North America, led by JPMorgan Chase, Capital One, and Royal Bank of Canada. Patent activity tells a starker story: just three US banks—JPMorgan Chase, Capital One, and Bank of America—account for 75% of the entire industry’s AI-related patents.

AI-powered bank customer service workstation with chat interface and headset — Illustration © Toptenplay

"European banks are one step behind, without the same access to an AI startup ecosystem," Mousavizadeh says. "The US has a lot of open doors for talent to move back and forth." Talent, EY’s Gupta agrees, is "the key factor to solve for."

Some European institutions are nonetheless carving out notable positions. Commerzbank launched an AI-generated customer service avatar named Ava roughly a year ago; it now handles more than 30,000 inquiries a month and resolves three-quarters of them. Italy’s UniCredit developed the DealSync platform, which identifies thousands of merger and acquisition opportunities for midsize companies across Austria, Germany, and Italy. Dutch bank ING has deployed AI in call centers and, according to Chief Operations Officer Marnix van Stiphout, is targeting a 2026 rollout of a mortgage application process handled entirely by an AI agent.

Trust, several experts argue, may ultimately be the banks’ most durable asset in this transition. Unlike the internet pioneers who enjoyed decades of utopian goodwill, AI arrives already shadowed by skepticism. "Moving so fast, it’s very hard to get the right balance of risk and innovation," Fernandez cautions.

75%

Just three US banks—JPMorgan Chase, Capital One, and Bank of America—hold three-quarters of all AI-related patents in the banking industry, according to Evident Insights.

What the AI divergence means for banks’ competitive positions

S&P Global’s analysis points to a concrete financial stakes: rated banks that successfully deploy AI could see average return on equity climb from 12% to 14% within three to five years. The agency explicitly expects financial and competitive positions among rated institutions to diverge over that period—meaning the gap between early movers and laggards is likely to widen, not narrow.

Data infrastructure is identified as the primary differentiator. Banks that have already digitized and cleaned their records are better placed to train reliable AI models. For institutions still working through legacy data issues, the window to close that gap is narrowing. On the talent side, proximity to AI startup ecosystems—a structural advantage for US banks—is flagged as a key variable that European and other institutions will need to address through dedicated hiring and training programs.

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